Investigating the future analysis of institutional trust based on the scenario writing approach (using the Micmac technique and scenario wizard)

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Doctoral student of the Department of Social Sciences, Faculty of Humanities, Kashan University, Kashan, Iran

2 Professor, Department of Social Sciences, Faculty of Humanities, Kashan University, Kashan, Iran

3 university of kashan

10.22052/ijcs.2025.253758.1019

Abstract

Social trust is one of the requirements of social life in modern times. One of the most important types of trust is institutional trust. Institutional trust expresses people's trust in institutions and organizations that are responsible for drafting, implementing and monitoring the law, providing information and providing the basic needs of the people. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-survey in terms of method. The socio-statistics of this research are university professors, experts and specialists in social sciences and city officials working in institutions such as municipality, governorate and governorate who have academic education or have a history of research or practical activities in the mentioned field. In this method, after conducting interviews and extracting the themes and analyzing the themes, 30 drivers were identified, and then MikMak software was used to determine the effectiveness of these factors. The findings have shown that these 8 variables are two-dimensional variables and these two-dimensional drivers have been entered into the Scenario Wizard software. According to the states of the variables, scenarios were formed, out of which only 7 scenarios were compatible. All 7 presented consistent scenarios depict an unfavorable situation of institutional trust in the future of the society. A number of effective factors in the scenario are under the category of administrative corruption. There is a strong causality between corruption and destruction of trust in public institutions (institutional trust). This scenario also shows the importance of not affecting institutional trust through any other variable; Because trust in institutions may be affected by mechanisms other than their inefficiency.

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History

  • Receive Date: 19 October 2023
  • Revise Date: 17 January 2025
  • Accept Date: 14 April 2025

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